Commodity Trends: Gold holds steady, metals fall

India’s growth rate is expected to clock 6.4 to 7% in 2009-10 as most Asian economies are expected to rebound from the financial crisis which is positive for both equity and commodity markets. Commodity exchanges in the country have already witnessed their combined turnover rise by 32.92 per cent till September 15 this fiscal over the same period last year, even as bullion trade dipped marginally, the commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) said.
BSE Sensex has climbed above !7000 levels for the first time since May 2008 on hopes of better quarterly earnings, banking, infrastructure stocks.

Poor demand in consuming countries have led to 20% fall in India’s coffee exports while global sugar prices are rising on Nagging worries over the impact on sugar supplies from top producer Brazil due to persistent and excessive rain, combined with expectations of further demand by Mexico, the US and India, have fuelled bullish sentiments in sugar.

According to data released by the Coffee Board, for the crop year ending September 30, 2009, India’s coffee exports stood at 1,81,069 tonnes as against 2,27,779 tonnes in the previous year, a decline of 20.5 per cent.
Export earnings were Rs 1,978 crore for the year, down over 17 per cent compared with the previous year. Unit value remained flat at around Rs 1 lakh per tonne.

Precious Metals
After initial weakness followed by marginal gains gold bounced backed to regain $1000 on Wednesday and managed to stay close to the $1000 mark as dollar retreated over news of deeper than expected US job losses in September. In the global market, gold rose above $1000 on Friday while in India prices dropped by Rs 50 per 10 gms at Rs 15,590. Earlier in the week, crude oil rally and geopolitical tensions supported dollar’s upward moves.

Gold prices are in for weakness as lower oil prices curbs demand for safe haven investments. Easing inflationary pressures does not augur well for gold. December Gold futures rose $3.60 at $1004 an ounce in the comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange. In the near to medium term, inflationary pressures and trends in dollar are major factors affecting bullion prices. The gold-to-oil ratio hs risen to 14.40 towards weekend from 14.17 previously. Spot Gold had risen to $ 1006 per ounce on intra-day trading on Tuesday.

The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, said its holdings stood at 1,095.327 tonnes as of Oct. 1. As of Sept. 30, it was up 1.22 tonnes from the previous business day. MCX December gold had strong support at 15452 and ended with a profit of RS 63 at Rs 15598. However, the trend looks downward while global prices are likely to hover close above $1000 mark next week.

Base Metals
Base metals face downside pressure on the back of bad economic news coupled with Chinese holiday. Copper prices ended the week on a negative note, losing almost 2% the last week. Poor US unemployment figures coupled with a long holiday in China kept the world’s largest copper consumer away. US non-farm payrolls revealed a loss of 263,000 jobs in September, while the market had braced itself for a lesser decline of 179,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate, however, met expectations at 9.8 percent. US carmakers watched sales drop 23.3 percent year-on-year to 721,378 vehicles in September, leaving the market reeling after the cash for clunkers incentives program ended in August. Though we have witnessed a downside in copper prices due to absence of China we feel that prices could rise by the end of next week as investment funds could buy ahead of return of the Chinese players in the market. Trading in the Shanghai markets will commence on 9th October, which is a Friday. Factor that could prevent a sharp upside by the end of next week in base metals could be a stronger dollar which has now found some strength on the back of poor US economic data.

Economic data from the US has raised concern that the situation still remains bleak. Overall, the employment scenario is still disturbing and the rally in base metal prices ahead of actual economic improvement may be threatening from the short-term perspective. We hold the view that, the slight improvement that is being witnessed in the economic data across the globe is mainly linked to the stimulus and other financial measures. If economies were left aside without stimulus measures, we could not have witnessed this change in economic figures. Hence, the rally in base metals remains under threat of a correction as demand needs to show strong improvement. Prices have raced ahead of their fundamentals; hence profit-booking at higher levels cannot be ignored. In the coming week, copper prices are expected to find support at 281.35/276.85 and face resistance at 294.50/303.15.

Energy
Crude oil prices gained a whopping 6% in the last week despite inventory data showing a rise. Crude oil supplies gained 2.8 million barrels to 338.4 million. Distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, rose 323,000 barrels to 171.1 million. That’s a sixth weekly increase even as refinery output and imports dropped. Gasoline inventories fell 1.7 million barrels to 211.5 million in the week to Sept. 25. Oil prices received support on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index in the early part of the week. However, the dollar index strengthened by the end of the week as bad economic data from the US lowered demand for higher-yielding and riskier investment assets and raised demand for the low-yielding dollar.

Oil prices touched a high of $71.39/bbl last week but closed below the $70/bbl mark as the dollar showed strength on Thursday and Friday. The decline in oil prices on Friday was after an economic report that showed that the US jobless rate increased to a 26-year high in September, boosting concern that fuel demand will take time to rebound. Economic concerns still persist and prices could face resistance around $70/bbl levels as demand scenario is not expected to improve significantly. In the coming week too, we could witness a rise in oil inventories and that could add pressure on oil prices. If the dollar strengthens on the back of rise in demand for low-yielding currencies then that will also add pressure on the downside. In the coming week, we expect oil prices to find support at 3212/3080 and face resistance at 3445/3540 levels.

Soybean
Soybean (NCDEX November contract) futures moved in a range of 2005-2051.50 levels during the last week. Soybean prices fell slightly lower on account of harvesting pressure of new crop in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh during the last week. Lower export demand of domestic soy meal and globally soybean production is estimated higher as compared to last year provided support to bears in the market. However, it recovered slightly on lower sowing acreage this year as compared to last year by Ministry of Agriculture and lower production estimates to 97 lakh tonnes this year from 108 lakh tonnes last year as per the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). Domestic kharif oilseeds area so far been covered on 172.21 lakh hectares against 181.34 lakh hectares during corresponding period a year ago, as on September 24, 2009.The area under soybean is reported down at 95.90 lakh hectares against 96.24 lakh hectares a year ago, groundnut at 44.22 lakh hectares vs 51.95 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. In the coming week, prices are expected to trade lower on account of harvesting pressure in major producing states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Prices have strong support at 1945/1910 and resistance is seen at 2060/2115 levels.

Chana
Chana prices witnessed a bearish trend in the last one month due to tremendous pressure from the government to curb the rising prices. Also, huge stocks of Chana supported the bearish market sentiments. Futures prices of Chana which surged 2.5% during the initial days of the last week on improved demand ahead of festival season erased the early gains and settled lower during the weekend due to adequate supplies in the markets. During the last week, October Chana contract traded in the range of Rs.2281-2353 per qtl.

Chana production stood at around 7.05 MMT up from the 2007-08 final estimates of 5.75 MMT. Also, it is expected that the acreage under Chana in the coming Rabi season will be more due to higher moisture level. Thus, overall sentiments in Chana remain bearish in the medium to long term. However in the short term, Chana prices will remain firm due to good demand ahead of festival season. Also, higher prices of other Pulses would support the sentiments in the short term. NCDEX Chana November contract is having strong support at 2335/2300 per qtl and resistance is seen at Rs. 2415/2455 per qt.

Black Pepper
Black pepper market was very volatile in the beginning of the week as bear operators were at centre-stage aided by higher crop arrivals from Brazil and Indonesia. On Tuesday October contract declined by Rs 48 on NCDEX to close at Rs 13,995 a quintal. November and December dropped by Rs 50 and Rs 14 respectively to close at Rs 14,160 and Rs 14,301 a quintal.
Pepper futures market on Thursday went up in the forenoon on bullish reports based on the earthquake in Indonesia and buy calls from expert analysts.

It dropped in the afternoon on sell calls to close below Wednesday’s closing. Profit booking at the end of the day also led to fall in prices although firm trend was visible due to robust spot demand, low stocks and reviving exports. India’s pepper is quite competitive as its ASTA Grade at $3000-3050 is cheaper than Vietnamese offering. Spot pepper rose by nearly 5 rupees and ended at 14,193.75 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi, a major trading hub in Kerala.
Fundamentals remain bullish on reviving exports, low stocks and robust spot demand. Decreasing price gap with leading global producers of the spice has led to export interest trickling back to India. Demand for spices usually goes up during August to October, the country's peak festival season.

Rubber
Weak to steady trend was visible in rubber spot markets in the country and this was also reflected in domestic futures at NMCE as the traders look for definite direction before making trades. RSS 4 grade was quoted at Rs 107.50 on extremely dull volumes. Tyre sector demand also looks dull, traders said. The October futures for RSS 4 closed at Rs 108.15 (108.21), November at Rs 109.09 (109.02), December at Rs 110.70 (110.96) and January at Rs 112.50 (112.19) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

Rubber declined as global equity markets dropped and U.S. auto sales slumped in September, eroding optimism that demand may grow for the commodity used in tires and gloves.

At TOCOM, rubber futures turned weak tracking Japanese equity market on unexpected drop in US manufacturing data, increasing jobless claims and declining September auto sales. Martch delivery rubber lost 3.8 yen at 198.6 yen a kg before closing at 200.8 yen although initially the contract had gain as much 2.7% in the week. Fundamentals for rubber continued to be steady to weak as data on automobile sales and economic recovery is not yet positive.

Wheat
Weakness was visible in India wheat futures on hopes of higher output. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar recently said that the extended monsoon season augors well for winter-sown crops such as wheat as soil moisture is set to improve.The winter sowing season starts next month. The October futures contract NWTV9 on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange fell to 1,222.6 rupees per 100 kg on Thursday.On Sept. 1, India had 30.1 million tonnes of wheat stocks, up from 23.2 million tonnes a year earlier. At the beginning of the new marketing year in April 2010, stocks are estimated at 10 million tonnes.

This week, CBOT wheat has rebounded an reports that US farmers are likely to go slow on sowing due to falling prices. CBOT Wheat has dropped 25% this year due to abundant supplies and falling export demand from USA. However, towards weekend, the bounce could not be retained and fell to $4.39 a bushel on large world supplies and spillover pressure form other markets. Canada has also raised it s wheat production dampening market sentiments.