Sugar production: This season, it is under-estimation

If 2008-09 was a year of the Centre and the industry both overestimating the country's sugar output, the 2009-10 season is turning out to be just the other way round.

At the start of the 2008-09 sugar season (October-September), the Centre reckoned production at 220 lakh tonnes (lt), assuming Uttar Pradesh (UP) to contribute 70 lt and Maharashtra 61 lt. As the season progressed, these were pared, first to 205 lt, 62 lt and 57 lt and then to 188 lt, 59 lt and 51 lt, respectively. Even right up to August, the Centre maintained production to be in the 150-155 lt range. However, when the season ended, the final all-India number came to 145.38 lt, while being 40.64 lt for UP and 45.78 lt for Maharashtra. And predictably enough, the Union Food and Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, laid the blame for this divergence of nearly 75 lt between initial and final estimates on the industry.

At the Indian Sugar Mills Association's annual meeting on December 22, Mr Pawar even threatened to penalise factories for “late and incorrect reporting” of their production figures to the Sugar Directorate. This time though, it is quite the opposite. On November 6, the Food Ministry convened a meeting of State Cane Commissioners and based on their inputs, production for the 2009-10 season was pegged at 146.14 lt. This included 47 lt from Maharashtra and 39.60 lt from UP.

While the Centre stuck to this internal estimate (while publicly proclaiming a 160 lt figure), the industry put it a tad lower at 140-145 lt. By January, the consensus within the trade was a production of below 140 lt, with some even venturing a sub-130 lt number. All that was enough for sugar prices to hit the stratosphere, as ex-factory realisations surged by about Rs 10/kg between Christmas and mid-January. But since then, prices are back to – actually lower than – where they were and, worse, seemingly headed further down. The trigger, again, is production, which is now seen to top 170 lt (according to Mr Pawar), with the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories expecting it even higher at 180-185 lt. The way output estimates have been revised upwards – and may well be revised further – is better captured by looking at just Maharashtra and UP.

Maharashtra mills were originally anticipated to crush just 410 lt cane, which, on an average 11.5 per cent recovery, would have yielded slightly over 47 lt of sugar. But as on March 31, crushing for the ongoing season had touched 531.11 lt, with corresponding sugar production of 60.81 lt. The latest projection of total crushing and production for the season are 560 lt and 65 lt, respectively.

Likewise with UP which looks set to produce 50-52 lt, against the initial sub-40 lt estimate. In both States, it appears mills simply did not account for the possibility of higher cane yields due to farmers taking extra interest in their crop this time. “We failed to gauge the grower's enthusiasm for applying more fertilisers and other inputs in view of remunerative cane prices, just as we last time underestimated his anger and indifference on not being paid adequately and in time”, a UP miller admitted.

India's sugar industry and $100 bn CERs

About 930 carbon credit projects are resting in Indian carbon trade basket, while 160-180 such projects are likely to be added every year. India has the capacity of earning a whooping US$100 billion by the trade of CERs, while CERs worth US$ 300 million has been already sold globally by India. Given the scale of sugar enterprises in India, the industry should come up in a big way to en-cash the potential of CER trading, said Dr. S N Dash, Secretary, Ministry of Heavy Industry& Public Enterprises.

He was speaking at a National seminar on Indian Sugar Machinery Industry organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), here today. He pointed out that the industry can make significant contribution in meeting the national power requirements. In 2008, 10% ethanol blending to petrol was permitted and the affects are being studied. Sugar industry can therefore supplement ethanol production and reduce nation's dependence on petrochemicals.

Dash highlighted that sugar machinery exports have been showing a steady growth of 35% per annum over the last five years. By virtue of its quality, the industry has established its credentials overseas. On the domestic front, the Indian sugar industry has a turnover of Rs. 700 billion per annum and contributes almost 22.5 billion to central and state exchequer every year.

Urging the government to liberate the sugar industry, Mr. Samir S Somaiya, President, Indian Sugar Mills Association said, that the part of Indian industry liberated by the government of India has made a mark globally, the IT & Telecom sectors. Sugar industry can also be a case of successful liberalization in India. The demands made by the industry 50 years ago have not seen any major policy initiative. We need to have a drastic relook at the sector and examine the way forward by liberalising.

Sidharth Shriram, Chairman, Mawana Sugars Ltd said that the industry has potential for CER trading, energy efficiency, exports and imports and reaching capacities. Therefore the industry should come-up with a 20-25 years roadmap and get all the stakeholders subscribe to it. This will see active participation from the Industry and government to achieve greater global heights.

K B Pranesh, Managing Director, Fives Cail - KCP Ltd shared a SWOT analysis of the sector. According to him India holds edge over China in terms of quality and competitive cost advantage of Sugar Machinery. However the industry needs to have IPR protection in place. While an open market will decide the economics of the industry, uniting effort in quality standards amongst small and micro enterprises should be undertaken.

Vivek Verma, Managing Director, Spray Engineering Devices Ltd., said that the focus of industry should be to lead a de-controlled regime. The government of India has always lend its ears and industry should make right proposals pertaining to policy framework, state-of the art technology, energy efficiency, and the likes for attaining globally competitive status.

Earlier in the welcome remarks, Aditya Puri, Chairman Sugar Machinery Division of CII & Managing Director ISGEC, said that the suppliers should be well acquainted with the technological advancements in this field. The Indian industry has to keep upgrading to manufacture products better than the best in the world.

Commodity Trends: India's Futures go rural

India’s inflation fell to near zero levels although it may take some time for it to get reflected in the prices of essential commodities. Even as the BSE Sensex is moving in a narrow range unable to break the 9000 mark, India’s largest commodity bourse created a record by as its turnover touched Rs 32016 crore on a single day the previous highest being Rs 29,887 crore in September 18, 2008. Angel Commodities, one of the leading commodity brokerages also announced the crossing of a major milestone of Rs 1000 crore turnover. What ever gains in BSE in recent days has been attributed to growth in commodity stocks.

Commodity market regulator, Forward Markets Commission (FMC) will install at least 180 display boards at locations such as rural post offices, Krishi Vigyan Kendras and APMCs across the country in the next 10 days to provide prices of farm com modity futures to farmers. Meanwhile gold and crude oil continue to generate more volumes in India’s commodity bourses.

Precious Metals
Gold prices recovered strongly from its lows during last week and almost touched a high of $970/oz., as the Federal Reserve's plans to purchase as much as $1.15 trillion in U.S. bonds and mortgage-backed securities sparked worries of inflation ahead, raising gold's appeal as a hedge against rising prices. This is the most aggressive plan taken by Fed since the early 1960. Demand from gold ETF also increased during this week. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, world’s largest gold ETF, touched an all time high of 1103.29 tons.

The volatility in prices in the Bullion pack has increased greatly over the past few months with 19 March being a highly volatile trading day. Spot Gold is finding excellent support in the zone of $880-$890 levels which is viewed as value buying zone by investors. Whereas major resistance zone is seen between $960-$970. The demand for the safe-haven asset is still prevalent with the USD weakening consistently over the past few trading sessions. Also, the increased volatility in the Rupee is playing its role in determining domestic bullion prices. In coming weeks & months, the state of the overall global economic scenario will play a key role in determining bullion prices as investors evaluate various asset classes to channel their funds. Still gold remains the best bet under current market scenario. MCX April Gold can face resistance around Rs.15600 levels, whereas support is seen at Rs. 14850 per 10 gram.

Crude Oil
crude Oil prices traded higher amidst high amount of volatility in the last week. Oil prices surged to a three month high on account of weak dollar and rally in global equity markets. Despite bearish inventory data, prices rebounded from its lows, after US Federal Reserve decided to buy Treasury bonds worth $300bn to ease credit market. Steps taken by Fed rekindled hopes for economic recovery and rise in energy demand. Crude Oil prices have increased by more than 20% this year, on account of strict implementation of production cuts by OPEC to reduce excess supply and weak dollar against major currencies. Volatility in oil prices has increased sharply in past few trading sessions. We expect that oil prices can witness fierce tussle between bulls and bears in coming weeks. Factors like falling demand and weak economic data are favoring bears, but weak dollar, rise in risk appetite amidst strong equity markets are giving bulls a reason to come back in to market. After last week’s rally, oil prices can witness profit booking. During this week, NYMEX May Crude Oil prices are expected to trade in the range of $42.50 and $53.50. MCX April Crude Oil futures have support at Rs. 2390/2175 and resistance is seen at Rs. 2740/2870 per barrel.

Rubber
Rubber prices in domestic and global markets were on a recovery mode this week. In the weekend covering groups lifted the prices to further highs driven by possibly a speculative interest. However, 2009 as predicted by many analysts is not going to be a good year for rubber with consumption to fall 5.5 percent across the globe mainly due to falling automobile sales. Rubber prices have slumped 50 percent in a year as the global recession slashed tire demand. Europe’s car market shrank 7.8 percent in 2008, while U.S. sales contracted 18 percent to a 16-year low

In TOCOM and Shanghai, benchmark natural rubber futures climbed to the highest in more than two weeks as producers restated proposed output cuts and on speculation China, the world’s largest consumer, is adding the commodity to state stockpiles.

Spot rubber flared up on Friday. Sheet rubber RSS 4 moved up to Rs 76.50 from Rs.75.50 a kg, while the market made all-round improvement even in the absence of enquires from the major manufacturers. The volumes were comparatively better.
The April futures for RSS 4 firmed up to Rs 77.99 (Rs 77.50), May to Rs 79 (Rs 78.56), June to Rs 79.99 (Rs 79.67) and July to Rs 79.95 (Rs 79.80) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

Towards weekend in global markets, RSS 3 slipped further to Rs 73.37 (Rs 73.81) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange. The grade’s spot weakened to Rs 73.68 (Rs 74.43) a kg at Bangkok. The physical rubber rates were: RSS-4: 76.50 (75.50), RSS-5: 75 (74), Ungraded: 73.50 (73), ISNR 20: 74 (73.50), and Latex 60%: 57.50 (57).
Meanwhile, India’s Rubber Board has raised alarm against the rapid growth in tyre imports mainly from China. A steady trend with an slight upward bias could be expected for rubber next week.

Base metals
Base metal prices are moving higher on the back of a weaker dollar and stable equities as both these factors have improved market sentiments. A weaker dollar makes base metals look attractive for holders of other currencies. This is providing a strong support to base metal prices but the upside could be capped as LME inventories have touched a 15-year high. The base metals market is in an oversupply situation and fundamentals look bearish. However, the current rise in base metal prices is mainly due to technical buying and short-covering. In the coming week, base metal prices are expected to remain volatile as the US is expected to announce economic data like existing home sales, new home sales, 4Q GDP, personal income and spending.

Soybean
Refined soy oil futures fell sharply during the last week as government of India scrapped import duty on soy oil to reduce premium over palm oil. Government of India extended ban on exports of edible oil. Last year, Govt. of India had banned export soy oil in March to control rise in price. According to the Solvent Extractor’s Association of India, India‘s import of edible oil increased to 7,30,094 metric tonnes in February, 2009, up 69.40% as compared to last year during the same period. Edible oil imports in the first four months of oil marketing year (November to February) was 28,24,941 metric tonnes, up 87% as compared to 15,12,695 metric tonnes during the same period last year. PEC Ltd. has floated two separate tenders for the local sales of 3161 metric tonnes of crude soy oil. PEC is authorized by the government of India to import edible oils and sales the local market. Global vegetable oil prices may still fall due to ample global supply. In the coming week, prices are expected to move lower on account of higher import of edible oil and scrapped import duty on soybean oil. NCDEX April Refined Soy Oil has support at 430/422 and resistance is seen at 452/460 levels in this week.

Other Edible Oil
India’s edible oil and oilseeds Futures recovered from their lower level tracking the global markets. The Bursa Malaysia Derivative making decent gains in the past few days and CBOT’s projection aided market sentiments. It was a firm trend in crude palm oil that lend support to the oil seeds complex. The June Contract closed at 1985 a gain of 74. Nymex Crude Oil has support at US $51 per barrel.
Mustard Seed and castor seed tracked the gains in soybean and ended on a mixed to higher note in physical, Futures markets

Turmeric
Spot prices at Erode and Nizamabad over the past couple of days are being quoted at higher rates due to better offtakes at the domestic market. Prices in the previous week were quoted in the range of Rs. 4,200-4,350/qtl. Even though the arrivals are more offtakes are equally better due to domestic buying. Arrivals on an average in the previous week were around 25,000 bags daily in both the major mandis of Nizamabad and Erode. Fear of lower availability of Turmeric in 2009 is supporting the prices to strengthen. Demand from the domestic market especially from local stockists is present but the overseas demand has reduced as the prices are at higher levels. Farmers are hoarding the stocks and not bringing in fresh turmeric to the market in good quantity in order to reap maximum profits. Turmeric Futures April 09 contract touched a high of Rs.5,090/qtl tracking spot prices. Prices are ruling at higher levels thus cautious trading is advisable at futures. Prices have initial support at Rs.4,840/qtl and thereafter at Rs.4,700/qtl. Resistance could be seen at Rs.5,205/qtl and thereafter at Rs. 5,395/qtl.

Sugar
Sugar market declined sharply by 15% in the last 3-4 weeks as the Indian government has adopted various measures to curb spiraling Sugar prices. Besides imposition of stock limits and duty free impost of Raw Sugar, Government is now considering a proposal to let state-run trading companies import refined sugar at zero duty to bridge the widening gap between demand and supply. Final decision by the cabinet regarding the duty free imports of refined Sugar is expected in the coming week. India will have to import 3 million tonnes of Sugar to meet its domestic consumption of 22.5-23 million tonne. But imported sugar is much more expensive than local sweeteners at present, making the imports unviable. Thus, despite government’s effort to ease import norms, we don’t expect imports to take place in the coming months. Any significant decline in the prices should be treated as a good buying opportunity as Overall, fundamentals remain supportive for the prices with lower output forecast in India and a global deficit of more than 4.3 million tonnes. April Sugar futures are currently trading at around Rs. 2035 levels. Prices are having initial support at Rs. 1995 and then 1953. Resistance could be seen at Rs. 2080/qtl and thereafter Rs. 2120/qtl.

Black Pepper
The undertone in the Black Pepper spot and futures counter this week was steady due to increased buying interest and aided by a tight supply position. Indian parity in the international market was at $2,225-2,325 a tonne (c&f) as the rupee has strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday. Overseas reports on Wednesday said that Brazil was firmer and exporters appeared to reluctant to offer. B Asta was said to have been offered at $2,000 a tonne while B1 at $1,900 a tonne (fob).

Vietnam was reportedly steady at $1,800 a tonne for faq 500 GL. More buying interest was seen for black and white pepper from industry albeit for nearby deliveries. Lasta was being offered on replacement basis at $2,200-2,250 a tonne (fob). New Indonesian crop is said to be lower at 15,000 tonne against an estimated 30,000 tonnes last season. However, some substantial quantity of carry over stock is reportedly available therein the hands of middlemen and exporters.

In the weekend the physical counter traded steady amidst good underlying buying interest. The domestic as well as the overseas buyers from Europe were active. The stock availability remained low inducing the Indian traders to purchase from other cheaper origin like Indonesia at $2100/tonne fob. At the benchmark Kochi markets berries were offered at Rs.10300/qtl for the ungarbled variety and 10800/qtl for the garbled variety, steady as that of prior trading session. Around 33.5 tonnes were sold for the arrivals of 25 tonnes. Strengthening rupee against dollar pushed up Indian parity to $2300/tonne f.o.b while VASTA was offered at $2150/tonne and BASTA at $1950/tonne f.o.b. Pepper is likely to trade weak during early hours with the possibility of late recovery.